Patrik Sturma vs Tomas Stempak 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13115027

Played Sep 11Finished

Patrik Sturma

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1210118911119––

Tomas Stempak

Away

1.73

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Tomas Stempak below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 81 set 4, 11-9

81 points played in total.

H2H Patrik Sturma 7–8 Tomas Stempak Patrik Sturma has won 7 of their 15 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Sturma beat Stempak 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stempak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSturma 2.00 / Stempak 1.73

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Stempak)+0.4pp

TT Cup · #13115027

Sturma2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog50% won 135 of 273

Down 0–1, comes back40% 55 of 138

Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45

Stempak1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSturma5wins

AwayStempak5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSturma66.7%4 of 6

AwayStempak75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Sturma6Stempak4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10

S2Sturma5Stempak5n = 10split evenly

S3Sturma8Stempak2n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10

S4Sturma3Stempak5n = 8Stempak took 5 of 8

S5Sturma1Stempak3n = 4Stempak took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricSturmaStempakSturma − StempakBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.338.5+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSturmaStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 843 vs 31 / 7348.5%42.5%409 / 843 vs 31 / 73Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Stempak

Sturma 2.00/Stempak 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Stempak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Sturma won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 11 · 11:45P. Sturma—811117123T. Stempak—118911102

LAug 19 · 09:20P. Sturma—13812782T. Stempak—11111011113

LAug 19 · 07:10P. Sturma—1381111112T. Stempak—1111413133

WJul 21 · 11:15P. Sturma—1211113T. Stempak—10590

LApr 27 · 15:10P. Sturma—91181162T. Stempak—113118113

LMar 25 · 18:08P. Sturma—911971T. Stempak—11611113

WMar 25 · 15:10P. Sturma—11911113T. Stempak—611881

WFeb 25 · 15:15P. Sturma—11711113T. Stempak—511641

WFeb 11 · 11:15P. Sturma—1111113T. Stempak—8870

LFeb 3 · 13:10P. Sturma—881151T. Stempak—11118113

P. Sturma10

WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123 LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272 LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113 LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972 WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123 LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861 LSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113 LSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113 WSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113 LSep 8 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.00211116113P. Sturma1.7311961182

T. Stempak10

LSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123 LSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113 LSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113 WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782 WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113 WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112 WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113 WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113 LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610 LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113

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