TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111574
Played Sep 11Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118119611611
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 50–52 Jaroslav Sindler Patrik Sturma has won 50 of their 102 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-52 in 102
Sindler
Correct
gap of 2 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1339 vs Sindler 1388
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 20% vs Sindler 40%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 40% vs Sindler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Sindler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.91 / Sindler 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sindler)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13111574
Sturma1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 135 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back40% 55 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Sindler1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 135 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it68% 88 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwaySindler5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturman = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySindler50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma2Sindler8n = 10Sindler took 8 of 10
S2Sturma7Sindler3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S3Sturma5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S4Sturma5Sindler4n = 9Sturma took 5 of 9
S5Sturma2Sindler2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaSindlerSturma − SindlerBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.8−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 839 vs 390 / 76448.6%51.1%408 / 839 vs 390 / 764Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSturma 1.91/Sindler 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma—41111662J. Sindler—118911113
LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma—1011501J. Sindler—12711113
WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma—81111113J. Sindler—118481
LAug 30 · 17:10P. Sturma—9930J. Sindler—1111113
WAug 30 · 15:40P. Sturma—111111113J. Sindler—913971
LAug 26 · 10:10P. Sturma—711111072J. Sindler—116812113
LAug 14 · 13:14P. Sturma—1441191J. Sindler—121113113
WAug 14 · 09:45P. Sturma—8111111113J. Sindler—11813892
WAug 13 · 11:40P. Sturma—4111011113J. Sindler—11512982
WAug 11 · 12:40P. Sturma—61111123J. Sindler—1187101
P. Sturma10
WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113WSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113LSep 8 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.00211116113P. Sturma1.7311961182LSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192
J. Sindler10
LSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182LSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113WSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151LSep 9 · 10:45J. Sevecek1.73711311113J. Sindler2.0011911692WSep 9 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8312990J. Sindler1.831411113LSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113LSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113WSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113LSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.