TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112454
Played Sep 11Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311101215135111012
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:46 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 112 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 56.6%
112 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 10–6 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1284 vs Sturma 1339
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Sturma 20%
Stefek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Sturma 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +3 · Sturma -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.67 / Sturma 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stefek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13112454
Stefek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite43% won 16 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Sturma2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 135 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back40% 55 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek6wins
AwaySturma4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek60%3 of 5
AwaySturma40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S3Stefek6Sturma4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Stefek7Sturma2n = 9Stefek took 7 of 9
S5Stefek3Sturma2n = 5Stefek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSturmaStefek − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.444.0−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 94 vs 407 / 83847.9%48.6%45 / 94 vs 407 / 838Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.67/Sturma 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 10:40D. Stefek—1163101P. Sturma—81111123
WAug 20 · 09:40D. Stefek—4121011113P. Sturma—111012982
LAug 19 · 13:15D. Stefek—1110101382P. Sturma—7121211113
WAug 19 · 10:10D. Stefek—1311711113P. Sturma—15611782
LAug 19 · 07:40D. Stefek—881181P. Sturma—11118113
WAug 15 · 16:50D. Stefek—9111411113P. Sturma—111312812
WAug 15 · 14:15D. Stefek—13213113P. Sturma—11111171
WAug 13 · 10:40D. Stefek—15211113P. Sturma—1311891
WAug 11 · 12:15D. Stefek—1111123P. Sturma—98100
LAug 11 · 06:15D. Stefek—761411102P. Sturma—1111128123
D. Stefek10
WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113
P. Sturma10
LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113LSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113WSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113LSep 8 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.00211116113P. Sturma1.7311961182LSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113LSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113WSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123WSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192
Upcoming Matches
D. Stefek
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P. Sturma
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