TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112455
Played Sep 11Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611112811117112
Richard Jancak
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:47 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 80 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 58.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 3–2 Richard Jancak Richard Jancak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:47What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1259 vs Jancak 1261
Jancak
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Jancak 80%
Jancak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 20% vs Jancak 60%
Jancak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Jancak +4
Jancak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.61 / Jancak 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Stefek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13112455
Stefek1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite43% won 16 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Jancak2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 45 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayJancak2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderStefek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek75%3 of 4
AwayJancakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Jancak1n = 5Stefek took 4 of 5
S2Stefek4Jancak1n = 5Stefek took 4 of 5
S3Stefek2Jancak3n = 5Jancak took 3 of 5
S4Stefek2Jancak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStefekJancakS − JBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.235.6+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 92 vs 141 / 28346.7%49.8%43 / 92 vs 141 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.61/Jancak 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 16 · 21:15D. Stefek—111111782R. Jancak—491311113
WAug 16 · 19:15D. Stefek—1111113R. Jancak—8870
WAug 13 · 07:10D. Stefek—111111113R. Jancak—631371
LAug 2 · 20:43D. Stefek—1051381R. Jancak—121111113
WAug 2 · 20:10D. Stefek—11112113R. Jancak—771181
D. Stefek10
LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113
R. Jancak10
WSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861WSep 8 · 13:14R. Jancak1.36911137113R. Sedivy3.00118111162WSep 8 · 12:15R. Jancak1.4011911113R. Sedivy2.75811941WSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113WSep 8 · 10:15P. Sturma1.911111481R. Jancak1.8051311113LSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113WSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113LSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113LSep 8 · 05:45P. Sturma2.10711116113R. Jancak1.6711741192LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113
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