TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101522
Played Sep 9Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116811115––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:48 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 58.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 17–18 Lukas Krupnik Jr Jaroslav Sindler has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:48What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-18 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1378 vs Jr 1338
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 20% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 50% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler -1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sindler)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13101522
Sindler1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 133 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it68% 86 of 127
Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 85 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back40% 27 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler5wins
AwayJr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler100%3 of 3
AwayJr71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Sindler6Jr4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Sindler4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Sindler6Jr3n = 9Sindler took 6 of 9
S5Sindler2Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerJrS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.2+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerJrBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 760 vs 231 / 43751.1%52.9%388 / 760 vs 231 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.67/Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 11:45J. Sindler—61111742L. Jr—117811113
WJul 29 · 14:45J. Sindler—91111113L. Jr—116511
WJul 16 · 13:15J. Sindler—991114113L. Jr—111181292
WJul 16 · 11:15J. Sindler—117511113L. Jr—11111992
LJul 11 · 09:40J. Sindler—76111192L. Jr—111186113
WJul 10 · 12:40J. Sindler—11114113L. Jr—831181
LJul 10 · 09:40J. Sindler—912871L. Jr—111011113
LJun 25 · 14:15J. Sindler—41280L. Jr—1114113
LJun 20 · 09:45J. Sindler—5111081L. Jr—11812113
WJun 17 · 13:15J. Sindler—11117113L. Jr—681161
J. Sindler10
LSep 9 · 10:45J. Sevecek1.73711311113J. Sindler2.0011911692WSep 9 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8312990J. Sindler1.831411113LSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113LSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113WSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960WSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113LSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481WSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113WSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580
L. Jr10
WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113
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