TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101539
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210911119119––
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:49 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Zustina to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Zustina at 57.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 1–1 Lukas Zustina Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:49What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1338 vs Zustina 1323
Jr
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Zustina 40%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Zustina 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Zustina -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zustina) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zustina form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Zustina 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zustina)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13101539
Jr2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 85 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back40% 27 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Zustina1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite37% won 11 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it50% 7 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwayZustina1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJrZustinaJ − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.040.5−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 437 vs 45 / 9652.9%46.9%231 / 437 vs 45 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZustinaJr 2.00/Zustina 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zustina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr—12911113L. Zustina—1011991
LSep 3 · 14:15L. Jr—1091131L. Zustina—12118113
L. Jr10
LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113
L. Zustina10
WSep 9 · 12:44L. Zustina2.1061411133J. Sevecek1.6711129111WSep 9 · 11:45J. Sevecek1.6761191472L. Zustina2.101171112113LSep 9 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8312990J. Sindler1.831411113WSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz2.1011111111113L. Zustina1.6713881382WSep 3 · 14:15L. Zustina1.7312118113L. Jr2.001091131WSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172WSep 3 · 12:15L. Zustina1.611111113R. Sedivy2.209880LSep 3 · 10:45J. Sindler2.10911811143L. Zustina1.67112117122
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
Nothing scheduled
L. Zustina
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