TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101254
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Sevecek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111131012911––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Sevecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Sevecek above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Sevecek at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Sevecek 3–1 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sevecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Sevecek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sevecek 1480 vs Jr 1309
Sevecek
Wrong
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sevecek 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sevecek 60% vs Jr 40%
Sevecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sevecek +3 · Jr -2
Sevecek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sevecek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSevecek 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Sevecek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13101254
Sevecek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 44 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it74% 34 of 46
Jr2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 85 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back40% 27 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSevecek3wins
AwayJr1wins
4 of 4 to a deciderSevecek leads 3–1, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sevecek2Jr2n = 4split evenly
S2Sevecek0Jr4n = 4Jr took 4 of 4
S3Sevecek3Jr1n = 4Sevecek took 3 of 4
S4Sevecek3Jr1n = 4Sevecek took 3 of 4
S5Sevecek3Jr1n = 4Sevecek took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSevecekJrS − JBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match49.245.2+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSevecekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 137 vs 229 / 43559.1%52.6%81 / 137 vs 229 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SevecekSevecek 1.67/Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Sevecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 18 · 09:45J. Sevecek—581311112L. Jr—1111116133
WJun 11 · 13:40J. Sevecek—681111113L. Jr—11117482
WJun 9 · 13:15J. Sevecek—1110811113L. Jr—81211552
WJun 9 · 11:10J. Sevecek—119117133L. Jr—611811112
J. Sevecek10
WSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113WSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113LAug 28 · 09:08J. Sevecek1.8011118792J. Sindler1.91691111113WAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.50111147133A. Strelec2.50991111112WAug 28 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80711911113J. Sindler1.9111711992LAug 28 · 05:40J. Sevecek1.538790J. Matus2.381111113LAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920
L. Jr10
LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112
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