TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101505
Played Sep 9Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119115711511
Jiri Matus
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 28–25 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-25 in 53
Sindler
Wrong
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1389 vs Matus 1348
Sindler
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Matus 60%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 80% vs Matus 60%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +2 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Matus 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sindler)+2.2pp
TT Cup · #13101505
Sindler1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 133 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it68% 86 of 127
Matus2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 26 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler7wins
AwayMatus3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler87.5%7 of 8
AwayMatusn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler8Matus2n = 10Sindler took 8 of 10
S2Sindler5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler7Matus3n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S4Sindler4Matus3n = 7Sindler took 4 of 7
S5Sindler1Matus2n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerMatusS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.935.8+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 756 vs 211 / 40851.2%51.7%387 / 756 vs 211 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Matus 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler—91111752J. Matus—119511113
WAug 28 · 08:10J. Sindler—11115113J. Matus—451181
WAug 26 · 08:45J. Sindler—15117113J. Matus—1391161
WAug 26 · 08:10J. Sindler—13411113J. Matus—1111671
WAug 13 · 06:40J. Sindler—114115113J. Matus—91171142
LAug 2 · 14:40J. Sindler—1171112122J. Matus—911514143
WJul 26 · 13:45J. Sindler—1111113J. Matus—8390
LJul 24 · 12:55J. Sindler—7870J. Matus—1111113
WJul 24 · 10:40J. Sindler—1111113J. Matus—9970
WJul 22 · 09:45J. Sindler—11812113J. Matus—8111071
J. Sindler10
WSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960WSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113LSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481WSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113WSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102
J. Matus10
LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113
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