Jaroslav Sindler vs Lukas Krupnik Jr 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13104031

Played Sep 9Finished

Jaroslav Sindler

Home

1.65

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

411114911118611

Lukas Krupnik Jr

Away

2.03

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jaroslav Sindler to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%

86 points played in total.

H2H Jaroslav Sindler 18–18 Lukas Krupnik Jr Dead even across their 36 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Sindler beat Jr 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:46

What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.65 (55%)

Sindler

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

18-18 in 36

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Sindler 1397 vs Jr 1318

Sindler

Wrong

both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Sindler 40% vs Jr 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Sindler 50% vs Jr 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Sindler +1 · Jr -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Sindler form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSindler 1.65 / Jr 2.03

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Sindler)+1.2pp

TT Cup · #13104031

Sindler1.65

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite51% won 133 of 262

Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51

Up 1–0, closes it68% 86 of 127

Jr2.03

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog53% won 85 of 161

Down 0–1, comes back40% 27 of 68

Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSindler5wins

AwayJr5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSindler100%3 of 3

AwayJr71.4%5 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Sindler3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10

S2Sindler6Jr4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10

S3Sindler4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10

S4Sindler6Jr3n = 9Sindler took 6 of 9

S5Sindler2Jr2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricSindlerJrS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.639.0+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSindlerJrBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 761 vs 231 / 43851.1%52.7%389 / 761 vs 231 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Sindler

Sindler 1.65/Jr 2.03

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.4%

Sindler · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Jr won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler—11118113L. Jr—761151

LAug 11 · 11:45J. Sindler—61111742L. Jr—117811113

WJul 29 · 14:45J. Sindler—91111113L. Jr—116511

WJul 16 · 13:15J. Sindler—991114113L. Jr—111181292

WJul 16 · 11:15J. Sindler—117511113L. Jr—11111992

LJul 11 · 09:40J. Sindler—76111192L. Jr—111186113

WJul 10 · 12:40J. Sindler—11114113L. Jr—831181

LJul 10 · 09:40J. Sindler—912871L. Jr—111011113

LJun 25 · 14:15J. Sindler—41280L. Jr—1114113

LJun 20 · 09:45J. Sindler—5111081L. Jr—11812113

J. Sindler10

WSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151 LSep 9 · 10:45J. Sevecek1.73711311113J. Sindler2.0011911692 WSep 9 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8312990J. Sindler1.831411113 LSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113 LSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113 LSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113 WSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960 WSep 8 · 09:29P. Sturma3.251011501J. Sindler1.3312711113 LSep 8 · 07:45P. Sturma1.8381111113J. Sindler1.83118481 WSep 8 · 07:15R. Jancak2.2061350J. Sindler1.611115113

L. Jr10

LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151 WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991 WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113 LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101 LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990 WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113 WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792 WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113 LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113 LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113

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