TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112434
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Stempak
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118611119811
Zdenek Chovancik
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Stempak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Stempak above · Zdenek Chovancik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Stempak at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1345 vs Chovancik 1304
Stempak
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 100% vs Chovancik 60%
Stempak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 50% vs Chovancik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak +5 · Chovancik +2
Stempak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.80 / Chovancik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stempak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13112434
Stempak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Chovancik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 14 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakChovancikBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 70 vs 30 / 7744.3%39%31 / 70 vs 30 / 77Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.80/Chovancik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chovancik won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Stempak10
LSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191LSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113WAug 19 · 09:20T. Stempak2.0011111011113P. Sturma1.7313812782WAug 19 · 08:10L. Snr1.6711911892T. Stempak2.10711911113WAug 19 · 07:10T. Stempak2.631111413133P. Sturma1.441381111112WAug 19 · 05:40D. Stefek1.80611111182T. Stempak1.91117138113WJul 21 · 12:45J. Lysek1.6181281122T. Stempak2.201110119113LJul 21 · 12:15R. Zajac1.801211113T. Stempak1.9110610LJul 21 · 11:15T. Stempak1.8310590P. Sturma1.831211113
Z. Chovancik10
LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 10:10F. Mandrysz1.6791113101Z. Chovancik2.1011515123LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621LAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr1.831111113Z. Chovancik1.835690
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