TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129188
Played Sep 14Finished
Ales Drozd
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117117––––
Kamil Przeczek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:22 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAles Drozd to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Kamil Przeczek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Ales Drozd at 55.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 4–2 Kamil Przeczek Kamil Przeczek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Drozd
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Drozd
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1473 vs Przeczek 1379
Drozd
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Przeczek 20%
Drozd
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Przeczek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd +1 · Przeczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przeczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 1.80 / Przeczek 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Drozd)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13129188
Drozd1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 34 of 48
Przeczek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 14 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back20% 4 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDrozd4wins
AwayPrzeczek2wins
4 of 6 to a deciderDrozd leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd75%3 of 4
AwayPrzeczekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd4Przeczek2n = 6Drozd took 4 of 6
S2Drozd4Przeczek2n = 6Drozd took 4 of 6
S3Drozd5Przeczek1n = 6Drozd took 5 of 6
S4Drozd1Przeczek4n = 5Przeczek took 4 of 5
S5Drozd2Przeczek2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricDrozdPrzeczekD − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match44.239.5+4.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdPrzeczekBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 263 vs 76 / 16751%45.5%134 / 263 vs 76 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdDrozd 1.80/Przeczek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 23 · 14:10A. Drozd3711113123K. Przeczek284311101
LMar 20 · 18:15A. Drozd4211511692K. Przeczek46911411113
LMar 20 · 14:40A. Drozd50911119102K. Przeczek45113811123
WJan 13 · 09:55A. Drozd53811129133K. Przeczek521191011112
WJan 13 · 07:15A. Drozd331111113K. Przeczek259880
WDec 8 · 06:45A. Drozd50118119113K. Przeczek4141191162
A. Drozd10
WSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282WSep 11 · 17:10A. Drozd2.051113113K. Baros1.6891160WSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 14:40K. Baros1.675111111113A. Drozd2.1011713852WSep 11 · 14:10J. Volny1.731157101A. Drozd2.0081111123LAug 25 · 08:38A. Drozd1.50114771O. Kus2.5061111113
K. Przeczek10
WSep 14 · 14:15O. Skvor1.5711961152K. Przeczek2.25511117113LSep 9 · 16:44O. Skvor1.731112113K. Przeczek2.0071070LSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113LSep 9 · 14:40K. Przeczek1.8311119682O. Skvor1.83871111113LSep 9 · 13:40K. Przeczek1.619111112102T. Ogrocki2.20118714123WSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113LSep 4 · 18:10V. Molin2.101111123K. Przeczek1.6728100WSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133
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