TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124106
Played Sep 13Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117611115511
Richard Jancak
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 3–0 Richard Jancak Richard Jancak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Ogrocki
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1346 vs Jancak 1285
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 40% vs Jancak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 40% vs Jancak 60%
Jancak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -2 · Jancak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.53 / Jancak 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Ogrocki)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13124106
Ogrocki1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite57% won 52 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Jancak2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 35 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back32% 15 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOgrocki3wins
AwayJancak0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderOgrocki leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki100%3 of 3
AwayJancakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki3Jancak0n = 3Ogrocki took 3 of 3
S2Ogrocki2Jancak1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S3Ogrocki1Jancak2n = 3Jancak took 2 of 3
S4Ogrocki2Jancak1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricOgrockiJancakO − JBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match47.741.3+6.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 466 vs 144 / 29046.6%49.7%217 / 466 vs 144 / 290Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.53/Jancak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki531111119113R. Jancak4989131182
WJun 19 · 19:45T. Ogrocki5115169113R. Jancak4413141161
WMay 24 · 20:10T. Ogrocki3911611113R. Jancak31411881
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113LSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 20:55O. Skvor1.61117871T. Ogrocki2.2081111113LSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113LSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971WSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113LSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113
R. Jancak10
WSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113LSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972LSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781WSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 8 · 13:14R. Jancak1.36911137113R. Sedivy3.00118111162WSep 8 · 12:15R. Jancak1.4011911113R. Sedivy2.75811941WSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113
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