TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123074
Played Sep 13Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214711411––––
Richard Jancak
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:25 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 59 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 60.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 4–2 Richard Jancak Richard Jancak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1335 vs Jancak 1278
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Jancak 40%
Stefek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 60% vs Jancak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +3 · Jancak -2
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.57 / Jancak 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Stefek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13123074
Stefek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it57% 12 of 21
Jancak2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 35 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back32% 15 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwayJancak2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderStefek leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek75%3 of 4
AwayJancakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Jancak2n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S2Stefek5Jancak1n = 6Stefek took 5 of 6
S3Stefek2Jancak4n = 6Jancak took 4 of 6
S4Stefek3Jancak2n = 5Stefek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStefekJancakS − JBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.535.2+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 98 vs 143 / 28949%49.5%48 / 98 vs 143 / 289Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.57/Jancak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek47611811113R. Jancak3311211722
LAug 16 · 21:15D. Stefek48111111782R. Jancak48491311113
WAug 16 · 19:15D. Stefek331111113R. Jancak238870
WAug 13 · 07:10D. Stefek44111111113R. Jancak29631371
LAug 2 · 20:43D. Stefek361051381R. Jancak45121111113
WAug 2 · 20:10D. Stefek3511112113R. Jancak33771181
D. Stefek10
WSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113
R. Jancak10
WSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113LSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972LSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781WSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 8 · 13:14R. Jancak1.36911137113R. Sedivy3.00118111162WSep 8 · 12:15R. Jancak1.4011911113R. Sedivy2.75811941WSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113
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