TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127078
Played Sep 14Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81120181171113119
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 20-18
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 119 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
119 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 22–17 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-17 in 39
Matus
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1323 vs Sturma 1359
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 40% vs Sturma 70%
Sturma
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Sturma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.83 / Sturma 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13127078
Matus1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sturma1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus6wins
AwaySturma4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMatus leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus75%3 of 4
AwaySturma50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Matus5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Matus6Sturma4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S4Matus5Sturma3n = 8Matus took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusSturmaM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.7+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 420 vs 417 / 85451.7%48.8%217 / 420 vs 417 / 854Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.83/Sturma 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 17:15J. Matus331111113P. Sturma193790
LSep 1 · 16:15J. Matus341110851P. Sturma4391211113
WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus4181111113P. Sturma25113741
LJul 28 · 18:40J. Matus33511981P. Sturma4111811113
WJul 27 · 14:40J. Matus4051113113P. Sturma351151181
LJul 22 · 12:15J. Matus249780P. Sturma331111113
WJul 7 · 10:45J. Matus4011711113P. Sturma34811871
WJun 25 · 13:45J. Matus48591211113P. Sturma43111110832
LJun 22 · 18:10J. Matus28511571P. Sturma4011711113
WJun 22 · 15:10J. Matus4511711163P. Sturma341118141
J. Matus10
LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102WSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133WSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143
P. Sturma10
LSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113LSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113WSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860
Upcoming Matches
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P. Sturma
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