TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124983
Played Sep 13Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118611115511119
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 18–11 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-11 in 29
Matus
Correct
gap of 7 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1306 vs Jr 1347
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 20% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -2 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.73 / Jr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13124983
Matus1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 87 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Jr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 79 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayJr6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus33.3%1 of 3
AwayJr57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Matus5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Matus5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Matus5Jr4n = 9Matus took 5 of 9
S5Matus2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusJrM − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.238.7+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJrBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 415 vs 235 / 44451.6%52.9%214 / 415 vs 235 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.73/Jr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus4211119113L. Jr32841191
LAug 29 · 17:40J. Matus4358111182L. Jr48111169113
WAug 4 · 19:40J. Matus40111116113L. Jr4011671152
LAug 3 · 21:15J. Matus35116991L. Jr4071111113
LAug 3 · 18:15J. Matus258890L. Jr331111113
LJul 28 · 20:35J. Matus46511119102L. Jr47118511123
WJul 28 · 19:40J. Matus46851111113L. Jr3811116552
WJul 23 · 19:45J. Matus4291111113L. Jr24114541
LJul 19 · 20:48J. Matus33127771L. Jr43101111113
LJul 19 · 19:45J. Matus4061171152L. Jr42113116113
J. Matus10
LSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143LSep 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.447870R. Zajac2.631111113WSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142WSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113
L. Jr10
WSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 18:15L. Jr1.83111111592J. Oleksik1.83813911113LSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113
Upcoming Matches
J. Matus
Nothing scheduled
L. Jr
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.