TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119584
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012117711116911
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 12–21 Lukas Krupnik Jr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-21 in 33
Jr
Correct
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1308 vs Jr 1389
Jr
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 60% vs Jr 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -2 · Jr +3
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.91 / Jr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13119584
Jnr1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 27 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Jr1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 89 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 61 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr2wins
AwayJr8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJr87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr2Jr8n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S2Jnr4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jnr4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr4Jr4n = 8split evenly
S5Jnr2Jr4n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrJrJnr − JrBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.643.9−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 255 vs 235 / 44252.6%53.2%134 / 255 vs 235 / 442Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJnr 1.91/Jr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr48101171192L. Jr47127116113
WSep 3 · 17:18J. Jnr46411118123L. Jr42117311102
LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr321183101L. Jr4281111123
LSep 1 · 16:45J. Jnr52516111462L. Jr601114816113
LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr2351080L. Jr341112113
LAug 28 · 16:54J. Jnr185490L. Jr331111113
LAug 28 · 15:10J. Jnr4068111142L. Jr47111168113
LAug 27 · 09:40J. Jnr29681141L. Jr3911116113
WAug 23 · 19:45J. Jnr47135711113L. Jr43111111642
LAug 9 · 21:20J. Jnr518111111102L. Jr52119137123
J. Jnr10
LSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560
L. Jr10
WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
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