TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121177
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412911511611––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11
79 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 14–15 Patrik Sturma Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.00 / Sturma 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sturma)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13121177
Jnr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 27 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Sturma1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 79 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it52% 45 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr4wins
AwaySturma6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr40%2 of 5
AwaySturma60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Jnr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr2Sturma8n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S4Jnr3Sturma5n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSturmaJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.139.2−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 251 vs 412 / 84753.4%48.6%134 / 251 vs 412 / 847Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaJnr 2.00/Sturma 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr4111118113P. Sturma29851151
LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2412750P. Sturma361411113
LAug 15 · 15:45J. Jnr136430P. Sturma331111113
LJul 14 · 18:15J. Jnr371171361P. Sturma4361115113
WJun 30 · 17:10J. Jnr4171112113P. Sturma341141091
LJun 30 · 14:10J. Jnr40168971P. Sturma47141111113
LJun 29 · 17:20J. Jnr25612341P. Sturma43111011113
WJun 29 · 14:15J. Jnr47111186113P. Sturma4899111182
WJun 29 · 10:15J. Jnr4351411133P. Sturma3911125111
LMay 29 · 18:10J. Jnr30116671P. Sturma4071111113
J. Jnr10
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113
P. Sturma10
LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113
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