TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119190
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118115811115––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 59.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 13–15 Patrik Sturma Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:20What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Sturma
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1365 vs Sturma 1338
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Sturma 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Sturma 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +4 · Sturma +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.25 / Sturma 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sturma)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13119190
Jnr2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 27 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Sturma1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 79 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it52% 45 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySturma7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr25%1 of 4
AwaySturma66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Jnr4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Jnr2Sturma8n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S4Jnr2Sturma5n = 7Sturma took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSturmaJ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.239.6−7.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 250 vs 412 / 84653.2%48.7%133 / 250 vs 412 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaJnr 2.25/Sturma 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2412750P. Sturma361411113
LAug 15 · 15:45J. Jnr136430P. Sturma331111113
LJul 14 · 18:15J. Jnr371171361P. Sturma4361115113
WJun 30 · 17:10J. Jnr4171112113P. Sturma341141091
LJun 30 · 14:10J. Jnr40168971P. Sturma47141111113
LJun 29 · 17:20J. Jnr25612341P. Sturma43111011113
WJun 29 · 14:15J. Jnr47111186113P. Sturma4899111182
WJun 29 · 10:15J. Jnr4351411133P. Sturma3911125111
LMay 29 · 18:10J. Jnr30116671P. Sturma4071111113
LMay 29 · 17:13J. Jnr227870P. Sturma331111113
J. Jnr10
WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113
P. Sturma10
WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113
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