TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119351
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117911113116
Martin Sobota
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 7–5 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:21What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sobota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Jnr
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1343 vs Sobota 1356
Sobota
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Sobota 60%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Sobota 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +3 · Sobota -1
Jnr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Sobota 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13119351
Jnr1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sobota1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwaySobota4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%2 of 3
AwaySobota42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Sobota7n = 10Sobota took 7 of 10
S2Jnr6Sobota4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S3Jnr6Sobota4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr6Sobota4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S5Jnr2Sobota1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSobotaJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.739.1+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 249 vs 75 / 17153%43.9%132 / 249 vs 75 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.83/Sobota 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 13:44J. Jnr34911861M. Sobota4011711113
LAug 15 · 17:20J. Jnr36811981M. Sobota4011711113
WAug 15 · 13:45J. Jnr3961111113M. Sobota26110781
WJul 14 · 13:45J. Jnr48771111123M. Sobota42111137102
LJun 19 · 16:45J. Jnr399711121M. Sobota4311117143
WJun 19 · 16:15J. Jnr4181111113M. Sobota35118971
WApr 25 · 11:40J. Jnr50111211163M. Sobota4471013141
WMar 22 · 10:40J. Jnr49811712113M. Sobota46116111082
LMar 21 · 14:45J. Jnr49118119102M. Sobota47711611123
WFeb 22 · 13:10J. Jnr4211911113M. Sobota28311771
J. Jnr10
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113
M. Sobota10
LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113
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