TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119635
Played Sep 12Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118116––––
Martin Sobota
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 2-2
Point 43 set 3, 2-2 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
43 points drawn · the score is 13 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Patrik Sturma 8–8 Martin Sobota Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1303 vs Sobota 1372
Sobota
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 40% vs Sobota 60%
Sobota
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 40% vs Sobota 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +2 · Sobota +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.73 / Sobota 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sturma)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13119635
Sturma1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 79 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it52% 45 of 86
Sobota2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 41 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwaySobota5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma50%2 of 4
AwaySobota50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S2Sturma3Sobota7n = 10Sobota took 7 of 10
S3Sturma7Sobota2n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Sturma4Sobota4n = 8split evenly
S5Sturma3Sobota2n = 5Sturma took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaSobotaSturma − SobotaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.741.9−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 844 vs 75 / 17048.6%44.1%410 / 844 vs 75 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.73/Sobota 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 12:10P. Sturma527111211113M. Sobota4711914672
LAug 15 · 15:15P. Sturma3176180M. Sobota401111183
WJul 31 · 11:10P. Sturma48671211123M. Sobota511111109102
LJun 14 · 11:10P. Sturma29941151M. Sobota4011117113
WJun 7 · 15:10P. Sturma4312711133M. Sobota3610114111
LMay 31 · 12:50P. Sturma4112511582M. Sobota521011911113
LMay 31 · 09:40P. Sturma4111812101M. Sobota46131110123
WMay 20 · 15:10P. Sturma50811119113M. Sobota4311751192
LMay 18 · 13:40P. Sturma3911381162M. Sobota47611118113
WMay 10 · 16:10P. Sturma331111113M. Sobota173770
P. Sturma10
LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123LSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 06:15P. Sturma1.9141111662J. Sindler1.80118911113
M. Sobota10
LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113
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