TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119591
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116118––––
Peter Chvojka
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-8
Point 54 set 3, 10-8 — our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr at 54.0%
54 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 3–2 Peter Chvojka Peter Chvojka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chvojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1320 vs Chvojka 1279
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Chvojka 40%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Chvojka 30%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Chvojka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Chvojka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13119591
Jnr1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Chvojka1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayChvojka2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJnr leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChvojka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr2Chvojka3n = 5Chvojka took 3 of 5
S2Jnr2Chvojka3n = 5Chvojka took 3 of 5
S3Jnr2Chvojka3n = 5Chvojka took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricJnrChvojkaJ − CBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.835.80.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 248 vs 135 / 29752.8%45.5%131 / 248 vs 135 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.83/Chvojka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 14:10J. Jnr2410950P. Chvojka341211113
LAug 31 · 14:10J. Jnr2410950P. Chvojka341211113
WAug 28 · 14:10J. Jnr341111123P. Chvojka2385100
WAug 27 · 12:43J. Jnr505111112113P. Chvojka5111981492
WAug 27 · 10:40J. Jnr47115911113P. Chvojka3711111772
J. Jnr10
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113
P. Chvojka10
LSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 7 · 12:44P. Chvojka1.4411811113T. Slivka2.63511341WSep 7 · 12:15T. Slivka2.208870P. Chvojka1.611111113LSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113LSep 7 · 09:45O. Vaclahovsky1.80118119133P. Chvojka1.91411811112LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242
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