TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119171
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117118116––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:15 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 58.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 45–28 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 28 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-28 in 73
Jr
Correct
gap of 17 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1349 vs Sturma 1363
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Sturma 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Sturma +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.61 / Sturma 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Jr)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13119171
Jr1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 89 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 61 of 84
Sturma2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 136 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back40% 56 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwaySturma4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr75%3 of 4
AwaySturma50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr6Sturma4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr7Sturma3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSturmaJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.733.1+5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 440 vs 414 / 84953%48.8%233 / 440 vs 414 / 849Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.61/Sturma 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr27731161P. Sturma3811115113
WAug 29 · 20:40L. Jr4411913113P. Sturma306111121
LAug 29 · 20:10L. Jr31711941P. Sturma3711411113
WAug 22 · 07:40L. Jr46131111113P. Sturma27152911
WAug 11 · 10:45L. Jr3961111113P. Sturma24113371
WAug 5 · 11:45L. Jr45113911113P. Sturma3521111562
WJul 29 · 18:15L. Jr43101111113P. Sturma29128361
WJul 29 · 16:44L. Jr3311110113P. Sturma29661161
LJul 29 · 16:15L. Jr33861181P. Sturma3711114113
LJul 28 · 18:10L. Jr4611971182P. Sturma45911113113
L. Jr10
WSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113
P. Sturma10
WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
P. Sturma
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