TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119169
Played Sep 12Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
211118118311911
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 85 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 58.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 1–3 Patrik Sturma Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Sturma
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1404 vs Sturma 1340
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 80% vs Sturma 60%
Jemelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +1 · Sturma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.67 / Sturma 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jemelka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13119169
Jemelka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 17 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Sturma2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 136 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back40% 56 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJemelka1wins
AwaySturma3wins
Sturma leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka2Sturma2n = 4split evenly
S2Jemelka1Sturma3n = 4Sturma took 3 of 4
S3Jemelka2Sturma2n = 4split evenly
S4Jemelka1Sturma3n = 4Sturma took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away375%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJemelkaSturmaJ − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match30.040.2−10.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 114 vs 414 / 85048.3%48.7%55 / 114 vs 414 / 850Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.67/Sturma 2.10
Miss
What we said
58.6%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 20 · 11:10I. Jemelka4241116113P. Sturma401181471
LAug 14 · 12:15I. Jemelka241110211P. Sturma4281211113
LJul 29 · 20:38I. Jemelka26681111P. Sturma4011117113
LJul 29 · 18:45I. Jemelka28114671P. Sturma3961111113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171LSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113WSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151LSep 9 · 17:40V. Molin1.53111176123I. Jemelka2.38591111102
P. Sturma10
LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113
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