TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119205
Played Sep 12Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181192115111012
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 90 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 4–0 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Jemelka
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1415 vs Jr 1323
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 70% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +3 · Jr +1
Jemelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Jemelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.44 / Jr 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Jemelka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13119205
Jemelka1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 17 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Jr2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 88 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back39% 27 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJemelka4wins
AwayJr0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJemelka leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka2Jr2n = 4split evenly
S2Jemelka3Jr1n = 4Jemelka took 3 of 4
S3Jemelka3Jr1n = 4Jemelka took 3 of 4
S4Jemelka3Jr0n = 3Jemelka took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJemelkaJrJemelka − JrBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.030.2+10.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 112 vs 232 / 43948.2%52.9%54 / 112 vs 232 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.44/Jr 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 29 · 19:45I. Jemelka48611911113L. Jr3911411762
WJul 5 · 18:45I. Jemelka4112711113L. Jr361011961
WJul 1 · 20:45I. Jemelka4291111113L. Jr33118951
WJul 1 · 18:15I. Jemelka331111113L. Jr135710
I. Jemelka10
WSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171LSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113WSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151LSep 9 · 17:40V. Molin1.53111176123I. Jemelka2.38591111102WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090
L. Jr10
WSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.