TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119562
Played Sep 12Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116511117118––
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-5
Point 63 set 4, 7-5 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 59.7%
63 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Patrik Sturma 16–14 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Sturma beat Jnr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Sturma
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1362 vs Jnr 1341
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Jnr 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Jnr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.67 / Jnr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sturma)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13119562
Sturma1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 79 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it52% 45 of 86
Jnr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 27 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma6wins
AwayJnr4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma60%3 of 5
AwayJnr40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S2Sturma5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Sturma8Jnr2n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S4Sturma5Jnr3n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaJnrS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.734.5+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 848 vs 134 / 25248.7%53.2%413 / 848 vs 134 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.67/Jnr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 17:15P. Sturma45121111113J. Jnr34149561
LSep 12 · 15:45P. Sturma29851151J. Jnr4111118113
WSep 1 · 14:45P. Sturma361411113J. Jnr2412750
WAug 15 · 15:45P. Sturma331111113J. Jnr136430
WJul 14 · 18:15P. Sturma4361115113J. Jnr371171361
LJun 30 · 17:10P. Sturma341141091J. Jnr4171112113
WJun 30 · 14:10P. Sturma47141111113J. Jnr40168971
WJun 29 · 17:20P. Sturma43111011113J. Jnr25612341
LJun 29 · 14:15P. Sturma4899111182J. Jnr47111186113
LJun 29 · 10:15P. Sturma3911125111J. Jnr4351411133
P. Sturma10
WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972WSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123
J. Jnr10
LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113
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