TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106314
Played Sep 10Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91110121214––––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 68 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 17–16 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1331 vs Mandrysz 1333
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Mandrysz 40%
Matus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 70% vs Mandrysz 40%
Matus
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Mandrysz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.61 / Mandrysz 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Matus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13106314
Matus1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 93 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it75% 63 of 84
Mandrysz2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 58 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back32% 27 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus2wins
AwayMandrysz8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus25%1 of 4
AwayMandrysz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S2Matus3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S3Matus3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S4Matus3Mandrysz4n = 7Mandrysz took 4 of 7
S5Matus2Mandrysz4n = 6Mandrysz took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusMandryszMatus − MandryszBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.442.5−5.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 414 vs 220 / 43751.7%50.3%214 / 414 vs 220 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.61/Mandrysz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus—910120F. Mandrysz—1112143
WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus—111198113F. Mandrysz—75111142
LAug 2 · 17:10J. Matus—11551182F. Mandrysz—311113113
LAug 2 · 14:10J. Matus—11651152F. Mandrysz—511116113
LAug 1 · 12:15J. Matus—8620F. Mandrysz—1111113
LJul 26 · 16:15J. Matus—11211382F. Mandrysz—911911113
WJul 7 · 13:20J. Matus—581111113F. Mandrysz—11117882
LJul 7 · 11:45J. Matus—1111131682F. Mandrysz—1371118113
LJul 6 · 08:50J. Matus—614891F. Mandrysz—111211113
LJul 6 · 06:45J. Matus—8680F. Mandrysz—1111113
J. Matus10
LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.447870R. Zajac2.631111113WSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142WSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113LSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960LSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113WSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133
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