TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101523
Played Sep 9Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116211811811––
Adam Strelec
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:52 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 68 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 56.2%
68 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 11–9 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Mandrysz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1318 vs Strelec 1343
Strelec
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 20% vs Strelec 60%
Strelec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 40% vs Strelec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -2 · Strelec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.67 / Strelec 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mandrysz)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13101523
Mandrysz1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 76 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Strelec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 37 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz6wins
AwayStrelec4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz85.7%6 of 7
AwayStrelec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz7Strelec3n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S2Mandrysz5Strelec5n = 10split evenly
S3Mandrysz8Strelec2n = 10Mandrysz took 8 of 10
S4Mandrysz2Strelec5n = 7Strelec took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszStrelecM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.332.3+4.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 431 vs 110 / 22450.1%49.1%216 / 431 vs 110 / 224Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.67/Strelec 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.4%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz—112881A. Strelec—61111113
LSep 7 · 05:45F. Mandrysz—671131A. Strelec—11114113
WSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz—1111113A. Strelec—9460
WAug 17 · 06:40F. Mandrysz—11411113A. Strelec—711761
WAug 4 · 08:15F. Mandrysz—11911113A. Strelec—611941
WAug 1 · 10:15F. Mandrysz—1191111113A. Strelec—31181382
WJul 26 · 14:15F. Mandrysz—1111113A. Strelec—4640
LJul 21 · 07:45F. Mandrysz—611561A. Strelec—11211113
LJul 2 · 06:40F. Mandrysz—81311882A. Strelec—1111711113
WMay 22 · 09:20F. Mandrysz—1111113A. Strelec—7980
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960LSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113WSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860
A. Strelec10
WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113
Upcoming Matches
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