TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101526
Played Sep 9Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117115911811114
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 88 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 16–15 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-15 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1348 vs Mandrysz 1318
Matus
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Mandrysz 20%
Matus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 60% vs Mandrysz 30%
Matus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Mandrysz -3
Mandrysz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.80 / Mandrysz 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13101526
Matus1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 92 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 62 of 83
Mandrysz1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back33% 27 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus2wins
AwayMandrysz8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus25%1 of 4
AwayMandrysz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S2Matus3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S3Matus4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S4Matus4Mandrysz4n = 8split evenly
S5Matus1Mandrysz4n = 5Mandrysz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusMandryszMatus − MandryszBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.041.7−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 408 vs 216 / 43151.7%50.1%211 / 408 vs 216 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.80/Mandrysz 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 17:10J. Matus—11551182F. Mandrysz—311113113
LAug 2 · 14:10J. Matus—11651152F. Mandrysz—511116113
LAug 1 · 12:15J. Matus—8620F. Mandrysz—1111113
LJul 26 · 16:15J. Matus—11211382F. Mandrysz—911911113
WJul 7 · 13:20J. Matus—581111113F. Mandrysz—11117882
LJul 7 · 11:45J. Matus—1111131682F. Mandrysz—1371118113
LJul 6 · 08:50J. Matus—614891F. Mandrysz—111211113
LJul 6 · 06:45J. Matus—8680F. Mandrysz—1111113
WJun 16 · 06:45J. Matus—11911113F. Mandrysz—311831
LJun 4 · 06:45J. Matus—7117101F. Mandrysz—11811123
J. Matus10
WSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113LSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960LSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113WSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163
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