TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103087
Played Sep 9Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
1.77
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311711116711––
Jiri Matus
Away
1.87
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Adam Strelec at 55.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 13–9 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Strelec beat Matus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (51%)
Strelec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Strelec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1355 vs Matus 1357
Matus
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 80% vs Matus 60%
Strelec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 60% vs Matus 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec +4 · Matus +2
Strelec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strelec) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 1.77 / Matus 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strelec)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13103087
Strelec1.77
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 29 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Matus1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 26 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrelec6wins
AwayMatus4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrelec leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec71.4%5 of 7
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec7Matus3n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S2Strelec5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S3Strelec5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S4Strelec5Matus2n = 7Strelec took 5 of 7
S5Strelec2Matus3n = 5Matus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrelecMatusS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.8+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 225 vs 212 / 40949.3%51.8%111 / 225 vs 212 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecStrelec 1.77/Matus 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec—119116133J. Matus—811411112
LAug 28 · 08:38A. Strelec—6560J. Matus—1111113
WAug 28 · 07:10A. Strelec—1111113J. Matus—6790
LAug 1 · 12:45A. Strelec—11751182J. Matus—911119113
WAug 1 · 11:15A. Strelec—18119113J. Matus—1691191
WJul 26 · 16:48A. Strelec—10111011123J. Matus—128127102
WJul 26 · 15:15A. Strelec—11711143J. Matus—7117121
LJul 3 · 09:15A. Strelec—12147672J. Matus—10121111113
WJul 3 · 06:45A. Strelec—1111113J. Matus—9780
LJun 30 · 07:15A. Strelec—108111122J. Matus—121158113
A. Strelec10
WSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113WSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071
J. Matus10
WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142WSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181
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