TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106351
Played Sep 10Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118116114––
Radek Zajac
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Radek Zajac below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 68 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 75.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 4–1 Radek Zajac Radek Zajac has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1353 vs Zajac 1192
Mandrysz
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 60% vs Zajac 40%
Mandrysz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 40% vs Zajac 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +3 · Zajac +2
Mandrysz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajac form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.30 / Zajac 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Mandrysz)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13106351
Mandrysz1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it71% 52 of 73
Zajac3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 6 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMandrysz4wins
AwayZajac1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMandrysz leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandryszn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZajac33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz2Zajac3n = 5Zajac took 3 of 5
S2Mandrysz4Zajac1n = 5Mandrysz took 4 of 5
S3Mandrysz3Zajac2n = 5Mandrysz took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMandryszZajacM − ZBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match34.630.0+4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszZajacBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 436 vs 11 / 3550.5%31.4%220 / 436 vs 11 / 35Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.30/Zajac 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz—61111113R. Zajac—118641
WSep 2 · 12:45F. Mandrysz—1111113R. Zajac—4690
WSep 2 · 11:10F. Mandrysz—511814113R. Zajac—118111262
LAug 14 · 12:38F. Mandrysz—8380R. Zajac—1111113
WAug 14 · 09:40F. Mandrysz—1111113R. Zajac—8490
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113LSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960LSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113WSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133
R. Zajac10
WSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 07:10R. Zajac2.501112113T. Slivka1.5071090WSep 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.447870R. Zajac2.631111113LSep 2 · 12:45F. Mandrysz1.501111113R. Zajac2.504690LSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 11:10R. Zajac2.38118111262F. Mandrysz1.53511814113LSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962WAug 20 · 16:40L. Jr1.22611781R. Zajac4.0011511113LAug 20 · 16:10D. Stefek1.6112115113R. Zajac2.201061161LAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113
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