Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Patrik Sturma 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13122011

Played Sep 12Finished

Lukas Krupnik Jr

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 3

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

711112114711711

Patrik Sturma

Away

2.25

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 3

How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Patrik Sturma below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-2

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 7-11

Set 5 · 7-11

Point 82 set 5, 7-11

82 points played in total.

H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 46–28 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 28 of their 74 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jr)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJr 1.57 / Sturma 2.25

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Jr)+0.4pp

TT Cup · #13122011

Jr1.57

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite54% won 89 of 166

Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36

Up 1–0, closes it73% 61 of 84

Sturma2.25

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog49% won 136 of 277

Down 0–1, comes back40% 56 of 139

Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeJr7wins

AwaySturma3wins

1 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeJr100%3 of 3

AwaySturma42.9%3 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Jr3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10

S2Jr6Sturma4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10

S3Jr7Sturma3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10

S4Jr7Sturma3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home660%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricJrSturmaJ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.331.8+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricJrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 442 vs 415 / 85153.2%48.8%235 / 442 vs 415 / 851Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Jr 1.57/Sturma 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

59.3%

Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Sturma won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr4291111113P. Sturma32117861

LSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr27731161P. Sturma3811115113

WAug 29 · 20:40L. Jr4411913113P. Sturma306111121

LAug 29 · 20:10L. Jr31711941P. Sturma3711411113

WAug 22 · 07:40L. Jr46131111113P. Sturma27152911

WAug 11 · 10:45L. Jr3961111113P. Sturma24113371

WAug 5 · 11:45L. Jr45113911113P. Sturma3521111562

WJul 29 · 18:15L. Jr43101111113P. Sturma29128361

WJul 29 · 16:44L. Jr3311110113P. Sturma29661161

LJul 29 · 16:15L. Jr33861181P. Sturma3711114113

L. Jr10

WSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113 WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861 WSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123 WSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113 LSep 9 · 12:15J. Sindler1.6711118113L. Jr2.10761151 WSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991 WSep 9 · 09:45J. Sevecek1.675111091L. Jr2.1011312113 LSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101 LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990 WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113

P. Sturma10

WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113 LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861 WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781 WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113 LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151 WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113 WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860 WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191 WSep 11 · 11:45T. Stempak1.80118911102P. Sturma1.91811117123 LSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272

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