TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124999
Played Sep 13Finished
Miroslav Dolezal
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119112911117––
Jiri Matus
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Dolezal above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Matus at 56.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Dolezal 1–5 Jiri Matus Miroslav Dolezal has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Matus
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1286 vs Matus 1331
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 60% vs Matus 40%
Dolezal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 80% vs Matus 50%
Dolezal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +1 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.20 / Matus 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Matus)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13124999
Dolezal2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 14 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back35% 6 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Matus1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 87 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDolezal1wins
AwayMatus5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMatus leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMatus100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal1Matus5n = 6Matus took 5 of 6
S2Dolezal2Matus4n = 6Matus took 4 of 6
S3Dolezal3Matus3n = 6split evenly
S4Dolezal2Matus1n = 3Dolezal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDolezalMatusD − MBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match34.540.5−6.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 40 vs 214 / 41447.5%51.7%19 / 40 vs 214 / 414Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusDolezal 2.20/Matus 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 4 · 21:13M. Dolezal4687111192J. Matus50111189113
LAug 4 · 18:10M. Dolezal346141131J. Matus4411166113
LAug 3 · 20:15M. Dolezal188370J. Matus331111113
WJul 28 · 17:40M. Dolezal371411123J. Matus31129100
LJul 27 · 17:08M. Dolezal48812111162J. Matus521110137113
LJul 27 · 13:40M. Dolezal249870J. Matus331111113
M. Dolezal10
LSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 18:45M. Dolezal1.835620J. Oleksik1.831111113WSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113LSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113WSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113WAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113WAug 30 · 18:10R. Jancak1.67411451M. Dolezal2.1011611113
J. Matus10
WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143LSep 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.447870R. Zajac2.631111113WSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142WSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Dolezal
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J. Matus
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