TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128562
Played Sep 14Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1121012711115711
Adam Strelec
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11
87 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 11–13 Adam Strelec Jiri Matus has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Matus beat Strelec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strelec)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.91 / Strelec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strelec)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13128562
Matus1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 24 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Strelec1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 21 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus5wins
AwayStrelec5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus66.7%2 of 3
AwayStrelec57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Strelec7n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S2Matus6Strelec4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S3Matus5Strelec5n = 10split evenly
S4Matus4Strelec4n = 8split evenly
S5Matus3Strelec2n = 5Matus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusStrelecM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.640.9+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 421 vs 113 / 22951.8%49.3%218 / 421 vs 113 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecMatus 1.91/Strelec 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 06:10J. Matus505111011133A. Strelec47118125112
WSep 9 · 09:20J. Matus3911116113A. Strelec28371171
LSep 9 · 06:15J. Matus45811411112A. Strelec50119116133
WAug 28 · 08:38J. Matus331111113A. Strelec176560
LAug 28 · 07:10J. Matus226790A. Strelec331111113
WAug 1 · 12:45J. Matus51911119113A. Strelec4211751182
LAug 1 · 11:15J. Matus451691191A. Strelec4918119113
LJul 26 · 16:48J. Matus49128127102A. Strelec5410111011123
LJul 26 · 15:15J. Matus377117121A. Strelec4311711143
WJul 3 · 09:15J. Matus5510121111113A. Strelec4612147672
J. Matus10
WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102WSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133WSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143
A. Strelec10
WSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113LSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113WSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123
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