TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125323
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Oleksik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8115111210117116
Jiri Matus
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Oleksik above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jiri Matus at 57.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Oleksik 2–6 Jiri Matus Jan Oleksik has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Matus
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oleksik 1341 vs Matus 1329
Oleksik
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oleksik 80% vs Matus 40%
Oleksik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oleksik 80% vs Matus 50%
Oleksik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oleksik +2 · Matus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOleksik 2.10 / Matus 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Matus)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13125323
Oleksik2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog63% won 10 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back57% 4 of 7
Matus1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 87 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeOleksik2wins
AwayMatus6wins
4 of 8 to a deciderMatus leads 6–2, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOleksikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMatus83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oleksik2Matus6n = 8Matus took 6 of 8
S2Oleksik3Matus5n = 8Matus took 5 of 8
S3Oleksik1Matus7n = 8Matus took 7 of 8
S4Oleksik3Matus2n = 5Oleksik took 3 of 5
S5Oleksik2Matus2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricOleksikMatusO − MBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match37.943.8−5.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOleksikMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 80 vs 215 / 41651.3%51.7%41 / 80 vs 215 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusOleksik 2.10/Matus 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oleksik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 14 · 17:45J. Oleksik4511861192J. Matus50911118113
LMay 3 · 17:40J. Oleksik35711891J. Matus4211911113
LApr 26 · 17:40J. Oleksik2998120J. Matus361111143
LApr 12 · 17:45J. Oleksik44811111132J. Matus51117913113
WMar 29 · 20:10J. Oleksik49711812113J. Matus48119111072
LMar 22 · 22:25J. Oleksik2471160J. Matus351113113
WMar 22 · 20:15J. Oleksik491110611113J. Matus4991211892
LMar 15 · 18:45J. Oleksik2815580J. Matus391711113
J. Oleksik10
WSep 13 · 18:45M. Dolezal1.835620J. Oleksik1.831111113WSep 13 · 18:15L. Jr1.83111111592J. Oleksik1.83813911113LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113LAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113
J. Matus10
WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143LSep 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.447870R. Zajac2.631111113WSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142WSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler1.7391111752J. Matus2.00119511113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112
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