TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127077
Played Sep 14Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116118811911411
Adam Strelec
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:17 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Adam Strelec at 62.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 4–9 Adam Strelec Patrik Sturma has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:17What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Strelec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Strelec
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1359 vs Strelec 1343
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Strelec 60%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 80% vs Strelec 50%
Sturma
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +3 · Strelec -2
Sturma
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Strelec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.38 / Strelec 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Strelec)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13127077
Sturma2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 124 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back42% 52 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Strelec1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 21 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma3wins
AwayStrelec7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrelec leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma28.6%2 of 7
AwayStrelec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma7Strelec3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S2Sturma3Strelec7n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S3Sturma2Strelec8n = 10Strelec took 8 of 10
S4Sturma5Strelec4n = 9Sturma took 5 of 9
S5Sturma2Strelec4n = 6Strelec took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaStrelecSturma − StrelecBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.743.6−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 854 vs 112 / 22848.8%49.1%417 / 854 vs 112 / 228Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecSturma 2.38/Strelec 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma4311118942A. Strelec47681111113
LSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma326115101A. Strelec4211811123
LAug 22 · 12:43P. Sturma4311911121A. Strelec4141113133
WAug 22 · 11:40P. Sturma4011711113A. Strelec33911491
LAug 14 · 11:15P. Sturma4311681172A. Strelec44811113113
WAug 4 · 07:15P. Sturma48117811113A. Strelec4391111572
LJul 31 · 06:40P. Sturma4611971542A. Strelec559111113113
LJul 21 · 09:15P. Sturma2271050A. Strelec341112113
WJul 21 · 05:45P. Sturma511111711113A. Strelec4813611992
LJul 16 · 12:45P. Sturma49117129102A. Strelec495111011123
P. Sturma10
WSep 14 · 05:40J. Sindler1.837990P. Sturma1.831111113WSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191
A. Strelec10
WSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113LSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113WSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580
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