TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126570
Played Sep 14Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11581112105111113
Jiri Matus
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Adam Strelec at 57.7%
97 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 13–11 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strelec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Strelec
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1331 vs Matus 1332
Matus
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 80% vs Matus 40%
Strelec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 50% vs Matus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec -1 · Matus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strelec) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 1.80 / Matus 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strelec)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13126570
Strelec1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 21 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it62% 13 of 21
Matus1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 24 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrelec5wins
AwayMatus5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec57.1%4 of 7
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec7Matus3n = 10Strelec took 7 of 10
S2Strelec4Matus6n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S3Strelec5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S4Strelec4Matus4n = 8split evenly
S5Strelec2Matus3n = 5Matus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrelecMatusS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.942.6−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 227 vs 217 / 41948.9%51.8%111 / 227 vs 217 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrelecStrelec 1.80/Matus 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strelec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec47118125112J. Matus505111011133
LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec28371171J. Matus3911116113
WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec50119116133J. Matus45811411112
LAug 28 · 08:38A. Strelec176560J. Matus331111113
WAug 28 · 07:10A. Strelec331111113J. Matus226790
LAug 1 · 12:45A. Strelec4211751182J. Matus51911119113
WAug 1 · 11:15A. Strelec4918119113J. Matus451691191
WJul 26 · 16:48A. Strelec5410111011123J. Matus49128127102
WJul 26 · 15:15A. Strelec4311711143J. Matus377117121
LJul 3 · 09:15A. Strelec4612147672J. Matus5510121111113
A. Strelec10
LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113WSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113WSep 8 · 06:45P. Sturma2.386115101A. Strelec1.5311811123LSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler1.731111113A. Strelec2.009580LSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113
J. Matus10
WSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143LSep 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.447870R. Zajac2.631111113WSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113LSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112
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