TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126984
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911911––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 53–50 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 50 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:27What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-50 in 103
Sindler
Wrong
gap of 3 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1411 vs Sturma 1354
Sindler
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Sturma 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 70% vs Sturma 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +3 · Sturma +2
Sindler
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.83 / Sturma 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13126984
Sindler1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Sturma1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler6wins
AwaySturma4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler57.1%4 of 7
AwaySturma33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler7Sturma3n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S2Sindler4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Sindler6Sturma4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S4Sindler5Sturma4n = 9Sindler took 5 of 9
S5Sindler2Sturma2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerSturmaSindler − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.238.6+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 774 vs 416 / 85251.3%48.8%397 / 774 vs 416 / 852Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.83/Sturma 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 10:15J. Sindler4071111113P. Sturma33118861
WSep 11 · 06:15J. Sindler50118911113P. Sturma3841111662
WSep 8 · 09:29J. Sindler4112711113P. Sturma261011501
LSep 8 · 07:45J. Sindler31118481P. Sturma4181111113
WAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler331111113P. Sturma219930
LAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler38913971P. Sturma44111111113
WAug 26 · 10:10J. Sindler48116812113P. Sturma46711111072
WAug 14 · 13:14J. Sindler47121113113P. Sturma381441191
LAug 14 · 09:45J. Sindler4911813892P. Sturma528111111113
LAug 13 · 11:40J. Sindler4511512982P. Sturma474111011113
J. Sindler10
WSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek1.80714101392J. Sindler1.9111121211113WSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113WSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113LSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580WSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781
P. Sturma10
WSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113WSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 11 · 12:50P. Sturma2.0012119113T. Stempak1.731081191LSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113
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