TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124105
Played Sep 13Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711141210121311911
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 110 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
110 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 9–7 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stefek beat Sindler 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:39What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1320 vs Sindler 1402
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Sindler 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 60% vs Sindler 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Sindler +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.80 / Sindler 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13124105
Stefek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it57% 12 of 21
Sindler1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog56% won 79 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back33% 22 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek6wins
AwaySindler4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek75%6 of 8
AwaySindlern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek8Sindler2n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Stefek5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek7Sindler3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Stefek2Sindler4n = 6Sindler took 4 of 6
S5Stefek1Sindler2n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSindlerStefek − SindlerBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.636.2+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 99 vs 396 / 77348.5%51.2%48 / 99 vs 396 / 773Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.80/Sindler 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 06:15D. Stefek341211113J. Sindler2010550
WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek331111113J. Sindler229580
WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek42124114113J. Sindler48101181182
LSep 5 · 16:43D. Stefek50119119102J. Sindler46811411123
LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek44116111152J. Sindler50611913113
LAug 27 · 09:09D. Stefek4110111191J. Sindler4312713113
WAug 27 · 07:40D. Stefek331111113J. Sindler247980
LAug 13 · 12:40D. Stefek2210570J. Sindler341211113
WAug 13 · 10:10D. Stefek4311911123J. Sindler355119101
WAug 13 · 09:13D. Stefek44111111113J. Sindler40991391
D. Stefek10
LSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113WSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990
J. Sindler10
WSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113WSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113LSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 10:45T. Stempak1.839850J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 11 · 10:15P. Sturma1.91118861J. Sindler1.8071111113LSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580WSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781LSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182
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