TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13127076
Played Sep 14Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11612101210––––
Jan Simecek Jnr
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:15 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 56.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 27–26 Jan Simecek Jnr Jan Simecek Jnr has won 26 of their 53 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 24:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-26 in 53
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1551 vs Jnr 1639
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -2 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.00 / Jnr 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jnr)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13127076
Merkl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 85 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back18% 8 of 45
Jnr1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 59 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 42 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl5wins
AwayJnr5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl100%3 of 3
AwayJnr71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl3Jnr7n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S2Merkl5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Merkl6Jnr4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Merkl3Jnr5n = 8Jnr took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklJnrM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.440.9+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 559 vs 226 / 43248.8%52.3%273 / 559 vs 226 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrMerkl 2.00/Jnr 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 19:30R. Merkl341111123J. Jnr2239100
WAug 15 · 09:00R. Merkl50131511113J. Jnr441513791
LAug 15 · 06:00R. Merkl2711880J. Jnr351311113
LAug 14 · 21:05R. Merkl371011881J. Jnr3812411113
WAug 14 · 20:00R. Merkl54991411113J. Jnr47111112942
WAug 2 · 06:15R. Merkl47111393113J. Jnr49911111172
LJul 31 · 19:30R. Merkl435141591J. Jnr51111613113
LJul 26 · 08:49R. Merkl371191161J. Jnr4313118113
WJul 26 · 05:45R. Merkl4011711113J. Jnr30811291
LJul 25 · 13:09R. Merkl458159131J. Jnr50111311153
R. Merkl10
LSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891
J. Jnr10
WSep 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky2.6397110J. Jnr1.441111133LSep 9 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311118972P. Orlowski1.83851111113WSep 9 · 19:45J. Jnr1.611211113S. Kalensky2.2010680WSep 9 · 18:15J. Gruber1.40591171J. Jnr2.7511117113WSep 9 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.919101111112J. Jnr1.80111295133WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191
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