TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122010
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141513118––––
Roman Merkl
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Provaznik to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 62 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Provaznik at 66.3%
62 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 5–0 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1562 vs Merkl 1562
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Merkl 60%
Merkl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 40% vs Merkl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Merkl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Provaznik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.40 / Merkl 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Provaznik)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122010
Provaznik1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it74% 26 of 35
Merkl2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 83 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back18% 8 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeProvaznik5wins
AwayMerkl0wins
2 of 5 to a deciderProvaznik leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik100%5 of 5
AwayMerkln = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik5Merkl0n = 5Provaznik took 5 of 5
S2Provaznik3Merkl2n = 5Provaznik took 3 of 5
S3Provaznik4Merkl1n = 5Provaznik took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricProvaznikMerklP − MBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match40.431.6+8.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 314 vs 274 / 55949%49%154 / 314 vs 274 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.40/Merkl 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik371115113R. Merkl2541380
WFeb 16 · 06:15L. Provaznik52157811113R. Merkl52131111982
WJan 22 · 14:15L. Provaznik361411113R. Merkl2312380
WDec 7 · 09:28L. Provaznik331111113R. Merkl173680
WDec 7 · 06:30L. Provaznik44113118113R. Merkl4191151152
L. Provaznik10
LSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113WSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162
R. Merkl10
WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.