TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095020
Played Sep 8Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119811118––
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Juppa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jachym Juppa at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 19–16 Jachym Juppa Jachym Juppa has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Juppa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-16 in 35
Merkl
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1573 vs Juppa 1505
Merkl
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Juppa 60%
Juppa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 50% vs Juppa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -2 · Juppa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Juppa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.91 / Juppa 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Juppa)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13095020
Merkl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 96 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back18% 10 of 56
Juppa1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 82 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it69% 67 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl4wins
AwayJuppa6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJuppa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl50%3 of 6
AwayJuppa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl6Juppa4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Merkl2Juppa8n = 10Juppa took 8 of 10
S3Merkl4Juppa6n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S4Merkl5Juppa3n = 8Merkl took 5 of 8
S5Merkl1Juppa2n = 3Juppa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklJuppaM − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.9−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 560 vs 448 / 85848.6%52.2%272 / 560 vs 448 / 858Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuppaMerkl 1.91/Juppa 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Juppa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 08:00R. Merkl—11118113J. Juppa—881191
LJul 27 · 13:15R. Merkl—176101362J. Juppa—15111211113
LJul 17 · 06:00R. Merkl—11671172J. Juppa—711119113
LJul 9 · 20:49R. Merkl—115871J. Juppa—41111113
WJul 9 · 17:45R. Merkl—119119123J. Juppa—811911102
LJul 7 · 20:23R. Merkl—121080J. Juppa—1412113
WJul 7 · 17:45R. Merkl—11711113J. Juppa—811571
LJun 20 · 14:45R. Merkl—5811101J. Juppa—11115123
WJun 10 · 16:59R. Merkl—51311113J. Juppa—1111381
LJun 10 · 16:00R. Merkl—14580J. Juppa—1611113
R. Merkl10
LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113
J. Juppa10
WSep 8 · 19:45J. Simek1.50711851J. Juppa2.5011711113LSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250LSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172WSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.