TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095009
Played Sep 8Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118511711––
Jakub Simek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Jakub Simek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Simek at 58.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 3–5 Jakub Simek Roman Merkl has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Simek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Simek
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1586 vs Simek 1544
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Simek 80%
Simek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 50% vs Simek 70%
Simek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -1 · Simek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Simek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.38 / Simek 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Simek)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13095009
Merkl2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 96 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back18% 10 of 56
Simek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite41% won 7 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMerkl3wins
AwaySimek5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderSimek leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl40%2 of 5
AwaySimek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl5Simek3n = 8Merkl took 5 of 8
S2Merkl3Simek5n = 8Simek took 5 of 8
S3Merkl3Simek5n = 8Simek took 5 of 8
S4Merkl2Simek5n = 7Simek took 5 of 7
S5Merkl2Simek2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMerklSimekM − SBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.643.2−4.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklSimekBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 559 vs 77 / 15448.7%50%272 / 559 vs 77 / 154Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimekMerkl 2.38/Simek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Simek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Simek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 20 · 07:15R. Merkl—46100J. Simek—1111123
LSep 16 · 10:15R. Merkl—1183101J. Simek—91111123
LSep 10 · 10:15R. Merkl—121197102J. Simek—1091111123
WAug 29 · 21:10R. Merkl—11612113J. Simek—7111081
WAug 29 · 20:00R. Merkl—117117113J. Simek—91151192
WJun 19 · 09:15R. Merkl—611116123J. Simek—117511102
LApr 29 · 12:10R. Merkl—711851J. Simek—11911113
LApr 29 · 10:45R. Merkl—11941192J. Simek—711119113
R. Merkl10
LSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113
J. Simek10
WSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751WSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113LSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WAug 25 · 20:58P. Maly1.91118551J. Simek1.8071111113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Simek
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