TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095100
Played Sep 8Finished
Petr Maly
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117117––––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Roman Merkl at 54.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 3–3 Roman Merkl Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1467 vs Merkl 1583
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 40% vs Merkl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 20% vs Merkl 50%
Merkl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly -1 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merkl) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 2.00 / Merkl 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Merkl)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13095100
Maly2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 41 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back35% 14 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Merkl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 57 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 38 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMaly3wins
AwayMerkl3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaly50%2 of 4
AwayMerkln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly4Merkl2n = 6Maly took 4 of 6
S2Maly0Merkl6n = 6Merkl took 6 of 6
S3Maly1Merkl5n = 6Merkl took 5 of 6
S4Maly4Merkl1n = 5Maly took 4 of 5
S5Maly3Merkl1n = 4Maly took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMalyMerklMaly − MerklBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.845.0−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalyMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 442 vs 273 / 56152.9%48.7%234 / 442 vs 273 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMaly 2.00/Merkl 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 2 · 19:00P. Maly—8960R. Merkl—1111113
WAug 18 · 20:00P. Maly—117711143R. Merkl—811115122
LAug 14 · 18:30P. Maly—11961182R. Merkl—811117113
LJul 25 · 10:30P. Maly—119321R. Merkl—91111113
WJul 14 · 17:45P. Maly—751111183R. Merkl—111198162
WJul 9 · 19:15P. Maly—119811113R. Merkl—71111972
P. Maly10
LSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391
R. Merkl10
WSep 8 · 18:45R. Merkl1.9111118113J. Juppa1.80891181LSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.