TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094662
Played Sep 8Finished
Petr Maly
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121411351112101012
Jakub Simek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Jakub Simek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Simek at 58.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 0–2 Jakub Simek Petr Maly has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Simek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Maly 1476 vs Simek 1557
Simek
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 40% vs Simek 80%
Simek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 20% vs Simek 70%
Simek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly +1 · Simek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Simek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 2.25 / Simek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Simek)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094662
Maly2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 41 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back35% 14 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Simek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite41% won 7 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMaly0wins
AwaySimek2wins
Simek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMalySimekM − SBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match32.539.5−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalySimekBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 441 vs 78 / 15553.1%50.3%234 / 441 vs 78 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimekMaly 2.25/Simek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Simek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Simek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 25 · 20:58P. Maly—118551J. Simek—71111113
LAug 25 · 20:00P. Maly—1111591J. Simek—41311113
P. Maly10
WSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770WSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391
J. Simek10
LSep 8 · 19:45J. Simek1.50711851J. Juppa2.5011711113WSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751WSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113LSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113
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