TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121920
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811114119119––
Leon Kolman
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Provaznik at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 6–2 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1547 vs Kolman 1614
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 20% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 40% vs Kolman 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Kolman +3
Kolman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.73 / Kolman 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Provaznik)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13121920
Provaznik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it74% 26 of 35
Kolman2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 63 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeProvaznik6wins
AwayKolman2wins
4 of 8 to a deciderProvaznik leads 6–2, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%3 of 4
AwayKolman25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Kolman4n = 8split evenly
S2Provaznik7Kolman1n = 8Provaznik took 7 of 8
S3Provaznik3Kolman5n = 8Kolman took 5 of 8
S4Provaznik4Kolman4n = 8split evenly
S5Provaznik3Kolman1n = 4Provaznik took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricProvaznikKolmanP − KBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match43.938.8+5.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 314 vs 356 / 67648.7%52.7%153 / 314 vs 356 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.73/Kolman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik4181111113L. Kolman33114991
LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik29511851L. Kolman3411111113
WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik47121158113L. Kolman40102111162
LJul 25 · 05:15L. Provaznik541311910112L. Kolman541171112133
WJul 1 · 15:45L. Provaznik531111911113L. Kolman3913411742
WApr 6 · 18:30L. Provaznik48136117113L. Kolman43111161142
WFeb 6 · 20:45L. Provaznik3911113143L. Kolman397911121
WJan 31 · 16:45L. Provaznik4071111113L. Kolman28116831
L. Provaznik10
LSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162
L. Kolman10
WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113LSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540LSep 9 · 16:38L. Kolman1.85311561T. Hucko1.8511811113LSep 9 · 16:00P. Hala1.8317911113L. Kolman1.831511351LSep 9 · 15:00T. Hucko1.73158116143L. Kolman2.001311711122LSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732WSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162
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