TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100953
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210611117113
Leon Kolman
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 91 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Leon Kolman at 62.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 11–13 Leon Kolman Petr Provaznik has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1520 vs Kolman 1661
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 20% vs Kolman 40%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 30% vs Kolman 70%
Kolman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +1 · Kolman -3
Kolman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.25 / Kolman 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kolman)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100953
Provaznik2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 34 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Kolman1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 111 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik3wins
AwayKolman7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik25%1 of 4
AwayKolman66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S3Provaznik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik2Kolman6n = 8Kolman took 6 of 8
S5Provaznik2Kolman2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikKolmanP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.142.2−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 490 vs 364 / 68347.4%53.3%232 / 490 vs 364 / 683Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanProvaznik 2.25/Kolman 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 11:00P. Provaznik—1110111032L. Kolman—712912113
LJul 16 · 16:58P. Provaznik—971471L. Kolman—111112113
LJul 16 · 15:00P. Provaznik—9670L. Kolman—1111113
WJul 12 · 20:59P. Provaznik—118118113L. Kolman—81191192
LJul 12 · 20:00P. Provaznik—8850L. Kolman—1111113
WJul 10 · 20:58P. Provaznik—1011911113L. Kolman—12911772
LJul 10 · 20:00P. Provaznik—211941L. Kolman—11711113
LJun 25 · 07:00P. Provaznik—116861L. Kolman—61111113
WApr 23 · 15:30P. Provaznik—81114113L. Kolman—1181251
LApr 7 · 20:33P. Provaznik—111311542L. Kolman—715711113
P. Provaznik10
LSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113
L. Kolman10
LSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640LSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791WSep 8 · 09:15T. Kanka2.50491111102L. Kolman1.50111175123WSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691WSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2.004980L. Kolman1.731111113WSep 7 · 10:58M. Bruk1.834470L. Kolman1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113
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