TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094708
Played Sep 8Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119117119––
Leon Kolman
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 16–12 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Svitac
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1598 vs Kolman 1709
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 0% vs Kolman 100%
Kolman
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 30% vs Kolman 90%
Kolman
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac -5 · Kolman +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.73 / Kolman 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolman)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13094708
Svitac1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Kolman2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 77 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac4wins
AwayKolman6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac80%4 of 5
AwayKolman100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S2Svitac4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Svitac6Kolman4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S4Svitac5Kolman3n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5Svitac0Kolman3n = 3Kolman took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacKolmanS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.0+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 387 vs 364 / 68054.3%53.5%210 / 387 vs 364 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanSvitac 1.73/Kolman 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac—913111192L. Kolman—111595113
LSep 6 · 17:45M. Svitac—64111252L. Kolman—1111610113
LSep 1 · 13:15M. Svitac—7111351L. Kolman—11815113
WAug 15 · 11:45M. Svitac—141211113L. Kolman—12101381
WAug 13 · 11:45M. Svitac—11118113L. Kolman—781121
WAug 12 · 11:45M. Svitac—11811113L. Kolman—711591
LJul 29 · 12:43M. Svitac—7711101L. Kolman—11114123
LJul 29 · 11:45M. Svitac—7670L. Kolman—1111113
WJul 23 · 09:15M. Svitac—1112113L. Kolman—31060
LJul 21 · 09:45M. Svitac—117121072L. Kolman—8111012113
M. Svitac10
WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113LSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 11:30M. Svitac1.679121191M. Bruk2.1011148113LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252
L. Kolman10
LSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640WSep 8 · 09:15T. Kanka2.50491111102L. Kolman1.50111175123WSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691WSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2.004980L. Kolman1.731111113WSep 7 · 10:58M. Bruk1.834470L. Kolman1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252
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