TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094499
Played Sep 8Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13111214411911––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Matej Svitac at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 3–2 Matej Svitac Matej Svitac has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1572 vs Svitac 1614
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Svitac 20%
Kanka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 40% vs Svitac 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -3 · Svitac +1
Kanka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.91 / Svitac 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svitac)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13094499
Kanka1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 46 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 40
Svitac1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKanka3wins
AwaySvitac2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKanka leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka66.7%2 of 3
AwaySvitacn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka3Svitac2n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
S2Kanka3Svitac2n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
S3Kanka4Svitac1n = 5Kanka took 4 of 5
S4Kanka1Svitac3n = 4Svitac took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKankaSvitacK − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.642.6−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 376 vs 211 / 38848.4%54.4%182 / 376 vs 211 / 388Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacKanka 1.91/Svitac 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 21 · 12:49T. Kanka—11116113M. Svitac—891151
WJul 21 · 11:45T. Kanka—1112143M. Svitac—610120
LJan 13 · 14:15T. Kanka—12412532M. Svitac—10111011113
WJan 13 · 10:30T. Kanka—1012214103M. Svitac—1210191152
LNov 11 · 10:45T. Kanka—1241171M. Svitac—14116113
T. Kanka10
WSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113LSep 8 · 09:15T. Kanka2.50491111102L. Kolman1.50111175123LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113
M. Svitac10
WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791LSep 8 · 09:45M. Svitac2.00119111052Z. Vasatko1.73311912113LSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 11:30M. Svitac1.679121191M. Bruk2.1011148113LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252
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