TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094622
Played Sep 8Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1139111191012511
Zdenek Vasatko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeZdenek Vasatko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Zdenek Vasatko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Zdenek Vasatko at 54.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 6–5 Zdenek Vasatko Zdenek Vasatko has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vasatko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1607 vs Vasatko 1668
Vasatko
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 20% vs Vasatko 60%
Vasatko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 40% vs Vasatko 60%
Vasatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac -4 · Vasatko -2
Svitac
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vasatko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 2.00 / Vasatko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vasatko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094622
Svitac2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 28 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Vasatko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 39 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac6wins
AwayVasatko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac100%4 of 4
AwayVasatko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Vasatko6n = 10Vasatko took 6 of 10
S2Svitac7Vasatko3n = 10Svitac took 7 of 10
S3Svitac6Vasatko4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S4Svitac4Vasatko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacVasatkoS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.035.2+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacVasatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 386 vs 142 / 28854.4%49.3%210 / 386 vs 142 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VasatkoSvitac 2.00/Vasatko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Vasatko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac—31111692Z. Vasatko—119811113
WSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac—1111113Z. Vasatko—8150
WMay 14 · 10:45M. Svitac—11115113Z. Vasatko—871171
WMay 1 · 10:45M. Svitac—119114113Z. Vasatko—91181172
LMar 24 · 10:30M. Svitac—8560Z. Vasatko—1111113
LMar 16 · 14:08M. Svitac—8711101Z. Vasatko—11117123
WMar 16 · 12:00M. Svitac—111112113Z. Vasatko—1341051
WMar 14 · 16:15M. Svitac—11115113Z. Vasatko—631151
WFeb 7 · 12:00M. Svitac—61211113Z. Vasatko—1110861
LFeb 19 · 13:12M. Svitac—712791Z. Vasatko—111011113
M. Svitac10
WSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00119791LSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 11:30M. Svitac1.679121191M. Bruk2.1011148113LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 8 · 11:45Z. Vasatko2.631111113L. Kolman1.449640WSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113LSep 7 · 12:58L. Kolman1.40111111113Z. Vasatko2.75913691LSep 7 · 12:00Z. Vasatko2.004980L. Kolman1.731111113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113WSep 7 · 09:58M. Bruk3.00118119102Z. Vasatko1.36911511123WSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162LSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101WSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990
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