TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13092350
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111214118911––
Martin Bruk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Martin Bruk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Matej Svitac at 59.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 18–12 Martin Bruk Martin Bruk has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:26What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1638 vs Bruk 1497
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 40% vs Bruk 20%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 40% vs Bruk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac -2 · Bruk -3
Bruk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.67 / Bruk 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Svitac)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13092350
Svitac1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Bruk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 32 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac5wins
AwayBruk5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac75%3 of 4
AwayBruk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Bruk6n = 10Bruk took 6 of 10
S2Svitac5Bruk5n = 10split evenly
S3Svitac5Bruk5n = 10split evenly
S4Svitac7Bruk2n = 9Svitac took 7 of 9
S5Svitac3Bruk4n = 7Bruk took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacBrukS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.544.7−3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacBrukBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 384 vs 201 / 38954.7%51.7%210 / 384 vs 201 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.67/Bruk 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bruk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 09:30M. Svitac—712511133M. Bruk—1110119112
WJun 12 · 10:00M. Svitac—1111113M. Bruk—7840
LJun 9 · 10:30M. Svitac—1011111072M. Bruk—127912113
LApr 13 · 09:45M. Svitac—141151262M. Bruk—1661110113
LMar 28 · 14:01M. Svitac—74111142M. Bruk—111199113
LMar 28 · 12:00M. Svitac—53111262M. Bruk—1111510113
WFeb 8 · 11:15M. Svitac—159911103M. Bruk—131111892
WFeb 7 · 14:12M. Svitac—11114103M. Bruk—981171
WFeb 7 · 13:00M. Svitac—771111103M. Bruk—11115792
LJan 21 · 13:54M. Svitac—112591M. Bruk—91111113
M. Svitac10
LSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 10:30M. Svitac1.9131111692Z. Vasatko1.80119811113LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac1.67913111192L. Kolman2.10111595113WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860
M. Bruk10
WSep 7 · 12:29M. Bruk2.1071111113M. Svitac1.67116541LSep 7 · 10:58M. Bruk1.834470L. Kolman1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:58M. Bruk3.00118119102Z. Vasatko1.36911511123LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361
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